Terror: Fear grips South-West as farmers, travellers, others targeted

Nigeria's Southwest region is experiencing an unprecedented security deterioration that extends far beyond traditional kidnapping and banditry patterns. The escalating violence affecting Ondo, Oyo, Osun, and Ekiti states represents a critical inflection point for European investors with established operations in what has historically been Nigeria's most economically stable zone. Until 2023, Southwest Nigeria functioned as a relative haven of stability within Africa's most populous nation. The region hosts critical infrastructure including cocoa production facilities, agro-processing centers, and emerging technology hubs in Ibadan and Lagos environs. This stability differentiated it from the chronic insecurity plaguing Nigeria's Northeast and Northwest, making it the preferred entry point for European manufacturers, agricultural exporters, and logistics operators seeking Nigerian market access. The current security situation fundamentally alters this calculus. Attacks targeting smallholder farmers, commercial transport corridors, and supply chain infrastructure are disrupting agricultural commodity flows that feed into regional and international export channels. Cocoa, cashew, and palm oil operations—sectors with significant European investment—increasingly face disruption from organized criminal networks exploiting deteriorating state capacity and porous rural security architecture. For European investors, the implications are multifaceted. First-order effects include supply chain fragmentation. Companies reliant on Southwest agricultural sourcing face production delays, increased security costs, and insurance