Hormuz alternative oil routes inadequate to cope with demand

The International Energy Agency's recent assessment of Hormuz Strait contingency measures has revealed a critical gap in global oil supply resilience that carries profound implications for European investors with African exposure. While Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have developed alternative export terminals positioned outside the Persian Gulf, these infrastructure solutions remain structurally insufficient to absorb the full volume of crude flows typically routed through one of the world's most strategically vital maritime chokepoints. The Hormuz Strait, through which approximately 20 percent of global petroleum passes daily, represents one of geopolitics' most consequential vulnerabilities. Any disruption—whether from regional conflict, shipping accidents, or political tensions—threatens to destabilize energy markets worldwide. The IEA's frank acknowledgment that alternative routing capacity falls short of worst-case demand scenarios should compel European investors to recalibrate their energy supply assumptions and African market strategies. For European companies operating across African energy sectors, this supply chain reality creates both headwinds and opportunities. On the risk side, sustained global crude shortages would inflate energy costs across Africa's already power-constrained economies, increasing operational expenses for manufacturing, logistics, and infrastructure projects. Energy-intensive sectors such as mining, cement production, and industrial agriculture would face margin compression. European investors in these domains