Oil rises further above $100, most Asian stocks fall as Iran war rages

Energy markets are entering a period of acute volatility as escalating tensions in the Middle East drive crude oil prices beyond the $100 per barrel threshold, creating a complex risk environment for European investors with exposure to African upstream and downstream operations. The third week of intensified Iran-related conflict has fundamentally shifted market dynamics, with crude prices climbing sharply as traders price in supply disruption risks and potential blockades of the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway through which approximately 21% of global seaborne oil passes annually. This geopolitical shock arrives at a precarious moment for African energy sectors, which have only recently stabilized following years of commodity price depression and underinvestment. For European oil and gas majors operating across West Africa and East Africa, the current price environment presents a paradoxical opportunity masked by substantial execution risks. Major producers in Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, and Mozambique are seeing marginal project economics suddenly become attractive again. Fields with breakeven costs between $70-$90 per barrel—previously deemed unviable—now offer meaningful returns. However, this window of opportunity is narrowing as geopolitical uncertainty makes project finance increasingly difficult to secure. The broader macroeconomic implications are more concerning. Higher energy prices create inflationary pressures across African economies already