Prebendalism: Tinubu is ‘governing’ for the few, not the many! By Olu Fasan

Nigeria's political economy has entered a critical phase under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's administration, characterized by what scholars term "prebendalism"—the distribution of state resources to political loyalists rather than through merit-based or transparent mechanisms. This governance model, while not entirely new to Nigerian politics, has intensified in ways that carry significant implications for the continent's largest economy and for European investors operating within its markets. The Tinubu presidency, which commenced in May 2023, has demonstrated patterns consistent with patronage-driven governance. Key ministerial appointments, contract awards, and policy implementations appear to prioritize political affiliation and personal networks over institutional capacity or competitive merit. This approach stands in stark contrast to the technocratic governance models that international investors typically expect in emerging markets, and it represents a departure from earlier promises of institutional reform. For context, prebendalism in Nigerian politics is not unprecedented. However, the scale and brazenness of resource allocation under the current administration have drawn criticism from civil society, academia, and international observers. The concentration of decision-making power within a narrow circle of loyalists has created bottlenecks in policy execution and reduced institutional predictability—precisely the factors that European investors assess when evaluating long-term commitment to African markets. The implications for