Rwanda threatens to end anti-jihadist operations in Mozambique - The Africa Report

Rwanda's indication that it may withdraw its military contingent from Mozambique represents a significant inflection point in Southern African security dynamics, with substantial implications for European investors operating across the region. The Rwandan Defence Force has been engaged in counter-insurgency operations against the Islamic State-linked insurgency in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province since 2021, providing critical military support when the Mozambican armed forces proved insufficient to contain the militant threat. The threat of withdrawal, reportedly triggered by tensions between Kigali and Maputo over operational priorities and command structure, signals deepening cracks in what was positioned as a continental security partnership. This deterioration occurs at a precarious moment: while the insurgency has been degraded through coordinated efforts, significant pockets of militant activity persist, and the underlying grievances—economic marginalization, resource competition, and governance failures—remain largely unaddressed. For European investors, this development carries multifaceted consequences. The Mozambican government, already struggling with security sector reform and international credibility following a disputed October 2024 election, faces renewed vulnerability in its critical energy sector. Major liquefied natural gas projects operated by consortia including TotalEnergies and ENI depend on reasonably stable security conditions in northern regions. A Rwandan withdrawal, absent alternative security solutions, could reignite attacks on