CONSENSUS JITTERS: Is the Just Transition slipping away? Power imbalances shaping SA’s energy future

South Africa stands at a critical juncture. Five years after President Cyril Ramaphosa established the Presidential Climate Commission in 2019, the nation's promised "Just Transition"—a framework designed to shift away from coal while protecting workers and communities—is showing dangerous signs of weakness. A recent groundWork report reveals a troubling disconnect: while South Africa has enacted climate policy frameworks on paper, implementation remains fragmented, and entrenched fossil-fuel interests continue to wield disproportionate influence over energy policy outcomes.

For European investors eyeing opportunities in Africa's renewable energy sector, this represents both a cautionary tale and a strategic inflection point.

The Just Transition concept emerged from South Africa's unique challenge: the country generates roughly 80% of its electricity from coal, employs over 120,000 people directly in coal mining, and depends on coal royalties for municipal revenues. A genuine transition requires simultaneous investment in renewables, worker retraining, economic diversification in coal-dependent regions, and energy security. Theoretically sound. In practice, it has become a battlefield where competing interests paralyze progress.

The groundWork report identifies three structural failures. First, power imbalances within governance structures mean coal-aligned constituencies (unions, provincial governments, state-owned Eskom executives) can block or dilute renewable energy acceleration. Second, funding mechanisms remain inadequate—South Africa secured $8.5 billion in international climate finance commitments in 2021, but capital has flowed slowly and unevenly. Third, communities most affected by either coal collapse or pollution have minimal agency in shaping outcomes.

What does this mean for the European investor landscape? South Africa remains Africa's largest economy and a gateway to Southern African markets. Its energy crisis is acute: rolling blackouts now cost the economy an estimated 1% of GDP annually. This desperation should theoretically accelerate renewable deployment. Instead, policy uncertainty is creating a paradox. Major international renewable developers face unpredictable procurement timelines, delayed grid connections, and regulatory shifts based on shifting political coalitions.

The risk is prolonged stagnation. If the Just Transition framework loses legitimacy—if workers feel betrayed, if communities aren't compensated for coal-region decline, if energy poverty worsens—South Africa could face social instability that makes infrastructure investment impossible. Conversely, if a future government breaks the coal consensus and accelerates renewable capacity at scale, returns for early-mover investors could be substantial.

The EU's Green Deal and Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive now require European firms to assess supply-chain and investment risks tied to just transitions. South Africa is a test case. Companies investing in South African renewables without genuine community engagement and worker protection frameworks increasingly face reputational and regulatory risk in European markets.

Smart European investors should watch three indicators: (1) whether the next round of renewable energy procurement (REIPPP Bid Window 6) moves forward on schedule; (2) funding disbursement timelines from the Just Transition Finance Partnership; (3) union positioning on energy transition agreements. These will signal whether South Africa is moving toward genuine transformation or sliding into energy-policy gridlock.