Food prices surge as N7.65 trillion imports, FG

Nigeria's food sector remains in crisis despite unprecedented government spending. In 2025 alone, the country imported food valued at N7.65 trillion—a staggering figure that underscores both the scale of domestic agricultural collapse and the limitations of import-dependent policy solutions. Yet food prices have continued their relentless climb, leaving millions of households struggling and exposing fundamental weaknesses in the nation's food security architecture.

The persistence of high food prices despite massive import expenditures reveals a troubling paradox at the heart of Nigeria's economic policy. Rather than stabilizing markets, the flood of imports has created perverse incentives that discourage domestic production, worsen currency pressures, and enrich import-dependent traders while ordinary Nigerians bear the cost through sustained inflation.

## Why Are Food Prices Still Rising Despite Record Imports?

The answer lies in structural inefficiencies rather than supply scarcity. Economic analysts point to three critical failures: first, imported foods enter at official exchange rates that don't reflect parallel market realities, creating arbitrage opportunities that inflate prices before goods reach consumers. Second, weak distribution infrastructure and logistics monopolies ensure that only a fraction of import value translates to retail price relief. Third, and most damaging, massive imports signal to domestic farmers that production is futile, triggering further agricultural contraction that deepens long-term dependency.

Government interventions—including direct food imports, price caps, and subsidies—have proven counterproductive. When the state floods markets with cheap imports, smallholder farmers (who feed 80% of Nigeria's population) face unsustainable competition and reduce planting. This creates a vicious cycle: imports suppress prices temporarily, farmer income collapses, production falls, and within months, shortages resurface, driving prices higher than before.

## What Data Shows About Food Inflation Trends?

Recent inflation reports confirm this dynamic. Food price indices have climbed faster than headline inflation, indicating that import strategies are not reaching the poorest households. Urban markets show some moderation, but rural areas—where production occurs—report price volatility and reduced farmer margins. Development experts warn that if current policies persist, Nigeria faces a structural food security crisis by 2027.

## How Should Government Redirect Resources?

The N7.65 trillion spent on imports should instead fund domestic agricultural infrastructure: irrigation systems, storage facilities, agricultural credit, and rural logistics networks. A 10-year investment in these areas would cost less and generate sustainable price stability while creating jobs and reviving rural incomes. Countries like India and Ethiopia have demonstrated that domestic agricultural development, not import substitution, solves food inflation.

For investors, the lesson is stark: agricultural productivity plays second fiddle to import convenience in current policy. This creates opportunity in agri-tech solutions, cold-chain infrastructure, and export-oriented farming that bypasses domestic bottlenecks. However, broader food security improvement remains elusive without policy reorientation.

The government's 2025 import strategy represents a failure of imagination and political will. Solving Nigeria's food crisis requires breaking dependency cycles, not deepening them.

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