Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Wamkele Mene… Huis clos africain à Davos pour préparer la riposte face aux menaces économiques de Trump - Jeune Afrique

As Donald Trump's tariff rhetoric reshapes global trade dynamics, Africa's most influential economic policymakers convened quietly at the World Economic Forum in Davos to chart a coordinated response. The closed-door meetings brought together WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonkjo-Iweala and African Union Commissioner for Trade Wamkele Mene, signalling that the continent is preparing to move beyond reactive posturing toward strategic economic repositioning.

The timing is critical. Trump's proposed tariff increases on developing economies threaten to disrupt African export corridors that have taken years to establish. For European entrepreneurs operating in African supply chains—from agricultural processing in Kenya to textiles in Ethiopia to mining logistics in Zambia—these trade tensions create both immediate risks and unexpected opportunities.

**The Core Challenge**

Africa's vulnerability to US trade policy stems from structural dependencies. The continent exports approximately $40 billion annually to the US market, concentrated in energy, minerals, and agricultural products. A 25% blanket tariff, as floated by Trump's administration, would instantly inflate import costs for European companies sourcing African raw materials while simultaneously making African exports less competitive globally. This compounds an already fragile recovery: African GDP growth slowed to 3.0% in 2024, below the 5.5% needed to absorb the continent's 15 million annual new job entrants.

Okonkjo-Iweala and Mene's Davos strategy appears focused on three pillars: First, leveraging the WTO's dispute resolution mechanisms to challenge unilateral tariffs as violations of most-favored-nation principles. Second, accelerating the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to reduce US-dependency by intensifying intra-African trade. Third, deepening partnerships with non-US markets, particularly the European Union.

**The AfCFTA Acceleration Play**

The AfCFTA, fully operationalized only in 2021, remains vastly underutilized. Current intra-African trade stands at just 12% of total African trade—far below the 40% potential identified by the African Development Bank. A serious push to deepen AfCFTA integration under Trump-era pressure could, paradoxically, create structural advantages for European investors willing to position themselves as bridges into African supply networks rather than US-dependent competitors.

**Market Implications for European Investors**

For European firms, the calculus shifts meaningfully. Companies with diversified sourcing in Africa can gain relative advantage as US competitors face tariff walls. The manufacturing renaissance in countries like Kenya, Rwanda, and Côte d'Ivoire—currently undervalued relative to their growth trajectories—becomes strategically attractive. French, German, and Dutch investors with existing African footprints should prepare to deepen commitments in sectors the continent controls (cocoa, lithium, rare earths, agricultural processing) before these assets become politically contested.

Conversely, European exporters relying on US distribution for African-origin inputs face margin compression. The window to restructure supply chains before tariffs take effect is narrow.

**What Comes Next**

Expect the AfCFTA secretariat to announce expanded support for cross-border manufacturing hubs in the coming months. Pressure will intensify on European governments to negotiate bilateral trade concessions with African nations, creating diplomatic leverage that could rewrite European access to African markets.