The young women who fought in Ethiopia's last civil war

Ethiopia's Tigray conflict, which concluded with a ceasefire in November 2022 after nearly two years of brutal warfare, left an estimated 600,000 dead and displaced millions. Yet the peace remains precarious, with women who bore arms during the conflict now emerging as vocal advocates for stability—a development with significant implications for European investors eyeing Africa's second-most populous nation.

The testimony of female fighters who participated in the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) resistance reveals the human cost of Ethiopia's political fragmentation. These women, many of whom took up weapons after experiencing sexual violence and displacement, have become unexpected peace ambassadors. Their insistence that another conflict would be catastrophic reflects ground-level sentiment often missed by international observers relying solely on diplomatic channels and government statements.

For European investors, this grassroots perspective carries critical weight. Ethiopia's macroeconomic indicators—a population exceeding 120 million, significant manufacturing potential, and strategic position in the Horn of Africa—have attracted substantial European interest in sectors ranging from textiles to agriculture and renewable energy. However, the Tigray conflict demonstrated how quickly political instability can eviscerate investment returns. Manufacturing facilities were damaged, supply chains fractured, and international personnel were evacuated. The conflict's toll on infrastructure, particularly in northern regions, remains immense.

The fundamental issue underlying these tensions—power distribution between the federal government and regional administrations—remains unresolved. While fighting has ceased, several critical agreements remain unsigned, including arrangements for disarming militias and integrating TPLF forces into national structures. This ambiguity creates persistent operational risk that extends beyond Tigray. Economic activity in Ethiopia's northern regions, which historically contributed meaningfully to national output, remains severely disrupted. Agricultural production in these areas faces multi-year recovery challenges, affecting both food security and export-oriented agribusiness ventures.

Female combatants' concerns about renewed conflict likely reflect specific warning signals—perhaps renewed military posturing, delayed compensation for fighters, or inadequate trauma support systems. These details matter to investors. A peace built on unmet expectations proves fragile. The exclusion of women from formal peace negotiations and subsequent reconstruction planning, a documented pattern in Ethiopia's process, may mean critical stabilization measures have been overlooked.

For European businesses, three scenarios warrant contingency planning. A stable peace trajectory enables gradual market access and infrastructure investment, particularly in sectors supporting reconstruction. Continued stalemate perpetuates the current investment freeze—manageable for established players but prohibitive for new entrants. A return to significant conflict would represent catastrophic value destruction, potentially rendering investments unrecoverable for 5-10 years.

The voices of female fighters merit attention precisely because they have little political incentive to exaggerate threats. These women experienced the conflict's reality directly; their anxiety about recurrence reflects informed assessment rather than rhetoric. Their advocacy for durable peace, combined with documented governance gaps, suggests Ethiopia remains a high-risk, high-reward market requiring sophisticated risk management and potentially phased rather than comprehensive investment approaches.