Airlines seek clarity on jet fuel stocks

South Africa's aviation sector is facing a critical supply chain crisis as jet fuel prices have surged to unprecedented levels, triggering urgent calls for government and industry transparency on fuel stocks and allocation mechanisms. The Airlines Association of Southern Africa has formally requested clarity on jet fuel reserves available beyond May 2026, warning that continued uncertainty threatens flight schedules and airline viability across the region.

The price escalation has been severe. Jet fuel costs have climbed from approximately R8.50 to R30 per litre—a 253% increase driven by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a geopolitical choke point through which roughly 21% of global oil passes. Since South Africa imports around 70% of its jet fuel requirements, the nation's aviation operators remain highly vulnerable to international supply disruptions and geopolitical volatility.

## What is the current state of South Africa's jet fuel reserves?

Airports Company SA has provided some reassurance, confirming that local stocks remain sufficient in the near term. OR Tambo International Airport—Africa's busiest—maintains five to six days of fuel inventory, while Cape Town International holds four days. King Shaka International in Durban has the strongest position, with up to 15 days of reserves. However, these buffers are slim by global standards and offer little protection against extended supply disruptions.

## How are airlines managing the cost burden?

Carriers operating in South Africa have already implemented tactical responses: fuel surcharges have been introduced on ticket prices, and several airlines have suspended or reduced frequency on less profitable routes. These measures, while necessary for financial survival, directly impact consumer travel costs and regional connectivity. The surcharges are expected to remain in place indefinitely while global fuel markets remain volatile.

## Why is transparency on fuel allocation critical for the industry?

Airlines require advance visibility into fuel availability and pricing to make operational decisions—route planning, aircraft deployment, and hedging strategies all depend on reliable supply forecasts. Without official guidance on reserve depletion timelines and allocation protocols, carriers face planning paralysis and heightened operational risk. The Association's request signals that ad hoc supply management is no longer acceptable.

The Strait of Hormuz closure has no announced resolution timeline, meaning South Africa's aviation sector faces months of elevated fuel costs and supply uncertainty. Industry analysts project that if the closure extends beyond Q3 2026, inventory buffers could tighten significantly, potentially triggering flight cancellations and further price escalation.

Beyond immediate supply concerns, this crisis exposes South Africa's structural dependency on fuel imports and its vulnerability to global geopolitical shocks. The aviation sector supports over 150,000 direct jobs and underpins regional tourism and trade. Sustained fuel price elevation threatens profitability across the industry and could accelerate consolidation among smaller carriers.

Government coordination with Airports Company SA and the Department of Energy is essential. Establishing a transparent fuel reserve tracking mechanism, negotiating strategic stockpiling agreements with suppliers, and exploring alternative fuel sources (synthetic jet fuel, biofuels) should be priority actions to insulate the sector from future supply shocks.

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