April inflation: What 7 economists are forecasting for the

Nigeria's economic outlook hinges on two critical forces converging in April 2026: inflation momentum and currency stability. As the National Bureau of Statistics prepares its monthly inflation print, a panel of seven leading economists surveyed by market analysts reveals a divided but cautious consensus—price pressures remain stubborn despite recent moderation, while the Naira's unexpected stability offers a countervailing tailwind to Nigeria's macroeconomic recovery.

The backdrop to this forecast is significant. Nigeria endured a brutal inflation cycle through 2024 and early 2025, driven by fuel subsidy removal, currency volatility, and global commodity shocks. The Naira collapsed to a low of N1,600 per dollar in early 2025, amplifying import costs and wage-price spiral risks. Yet over the past 12 months, the currency has undergone a quiet but transformative stabilization—settling into a tight N1,350–N1,430 band with daily volatility compressed from over 4% to roughly 0.5%.

## What Does Currency Stability Mean for Inflation?

A stronger, more stable Naira directly reduces the cost of imported goods and raw materials. Since roughly 40% of Nigeria's consumer basket includes imported or import-dependent items—from food to manufacturing inputs—Naira stability acts as a natural disinflationary force. Economists expect this transmission to filter into April's print, potentially easing pressure on food and energy components that dominated 2024's inflation surge. However, the lag effect matters; currency gains typically reflect in retail prices with a 4–6 week delay, meaning April data will capture only partial benefit from recent stability.

## Why Are Economists Still Cautious?

Despite Naira strength, Nigeria's inflation persistence stems from domestic supply constraints and base effects. Food inflation remains elevated due to poor harvests, insecurity in agricultural zones, and weak distribution networks—problems no currency fix can immediately solve. The seven-economist survey suggests consensus around a forecast range of 28–32% year-on-year headline inflation for April, down modestly from prior months but still well above the Central Bank of Nigeria's medium-term target of 18%. Core inflation, which strips volatile food and energy, is expected near 26%, indicating broad-based price stickiness beyond commodities.

## How Sustainable Is Naira Stability?

The Central Bank's disciplined monetary policy (rates held at 27.25%) and tighter dollar inflows from oil production recovery have anchored the currency. However, economists caution that this stability is conditional on sustained oil prices above $80/barrel and continued policy consistency. External shocks—geopolitical tensions, Fed rate cuts, or production disruptions—could destabilize the Naira again. The consensus view treats the N1,350–N1,430 range as defensible but not unbreakable.

For investors, this moment presents a paradox: inflation remains uncomfortably high, but the Naira's grip on stability offers the first genuine macro relief in 18 months. Real yields on fixed-income instruments are approaching attractive territory, and currency hedging costs have normalized, improving the risk-adjusted returns on Nigerian assets.