eNCA Business | Market update | 23 April 2026

South Africa's stock market is bracing for another session of downward pressure as geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran continue to unsettle global investor sentiment. The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) opened Thursday, 23 April 2026, expected to trade below previous levels, reflecting broader uncertainty gripping both local and international bourses.

## Why are geopolitical tensions hitting African markets?

The escalating US-Iran conflict has created a ripple effect across emerging markets, including South Africa. Risk-off sentiment typically drives capital away from higher-beta assets—stocks in developing economies—toward safer havens like US Treasury bonds and gold. For JSE-listed companies with offshore earnings, currency headwinds compound losses as the rand weakens during periods of global instability. When international investors retreat to safety, liquidity on the JSE contracts, amplifying sell-side pressure.

FNB's Zimele Mbanjwa highlighted that the market remains in "wait-and-see mode," a term that captures investor paralysis. Without clarity on whether US-Iran tensions will escalate into broader regional conflict or resolve diplomatically, portfolio managers are reluctant to commit fresh capital. This hesitation typically manifests as subdued trading volumes and widening bid-ask spreads—hallmarks of Thursday's expected session.

## What sectors are most vulnerable?

Financials, industrials, and resources have historically borne the brunt during geopolitical shocks. Banks like Standard Bank and FirstRand face pressure if emerging-market risk premiums widen, reducing their regional growth narratives. Mining stocks—traditionally JSE heavyweights—are caught between two forces: oil price volatility driven by Middle East tensions supports commodity demand, but geopolitical risk premiums and rate-hike expectations (as central banks tighten amid inflation) suppress equity valuations. Gold miners may find temporary support from haven-buying, but the broader mining complex remains vulnerable.

## How long will this uncertainty persist?

Market historians note that geopolitical shocks typically resolve within weeks or months, not years. However, the timeline remains opaque. Until either military escalation or diplomatic breakthrough crystallizes, investors will remain cautious. South African policymakers and the Reserve Bank are closely monitoring the rand's trajectory; sustained weakness could reignite inflation concerns and complicate the monetary policy outlook heading into mid-year reviews.

The JSE's performance this week will likely hinge on offshore cues. US equity indices, which trade first and set tone for global sessions, will signal whether institutional capital is rotating defensively or selectively buying dips. Locally, watch for support at key technical levels on the Top 40 Index. Institutional investors, particularly pension funds, may use any sharp declines as entry points for long-term positioning—a counterbalance to the day traders and sentiment-driven retail flows exiting risk assets.

South Africa's economic backdrop—modest growth, persistent unemployment, and constrained government finances—offers little insulation. When global investors are fearful, they rarely distinguish between developed and emerging-market problems; they simply exit. The JSE's ability to stabilize depends on either external geopolitical resolution or a rotation back into value plays among SA equities, particularly dividend-yielding stocks and infrastructure plays.