Glencore boosts copper output as DRC quotas take toll

The Democratic Republic of Congo's aggressive copper export quota system—designed to capture more value domestically—is backfiring spectacularly. Mining giant Glencore is responding by accelerating production capacity *outside* DRC borders, a strategic pivot that illustrates the unintended consequences of Congo's resource nationalism and threatens to hollow out the country's long-term mining advantage.

For two decades, the DRC has been the world's largest cobalt producer and second-largest copper supplier, accounting for roughly 70% of global cobalt and 10-12% of copper. But in 2024, the Kinshasa government imposed strict export quotas on unrefined copper and cobalt concentrates, demanding that mining firms either process ore domestically or face severely restricted export permits. The goal was transparent: force foreign miners to build refineries in Congo, create jobs, and increase tax revenue.

Glencore—which operates the Katanga Mining complex in southern DRC, one of Africa's most profitable copper mines—faced a choice: comply with new capex-heavy refining requirements or reallocate investment. The company chose the latter.

## How is Glencore Reshaping its African Footprint?

Instead of building downstream capacity in the DRC, Glencore is pivoting to copper-rich jurisdictions with more favorable investment climates. The company is expanding its Zambian copper operations and exploring acceleration of projects in Botswana and Namibia, where regulatory environments are clearer and infrastructure less constraining. This geographic diversification reduces Glencore's exposure to DRC policy risk while maintaining access to quality ore—ultimately, the company still sources from Congo, but it refines and exports from friendlier jurisdictions.

The irony is sharp: Congo's attempt to *increase* its share of mining value is accelerating *capital flight* and shifting employment to neighboring states. Zambia, already Africa's second-largest copper producer, stands to gain processing jobs and tax revenues that Congo intended for itself.

## What Does This Mean for DRC Investors and Policy?

The quota strategy signals a deeper problem in Congo's mining governance: the government is reactive, not strategic. High-quality mining policy requires long-term predictability, transparent dispute resolution, and alignment between resource nationalism goals and enforcement capacity. Congo has none of these consistently. As a result, multinational miners—who move capital at speed—are rationing new investment in the country. Glencore's pivot is not isolated; other firms are quietly evaluating similar exits.

For investors, this creates a bifurcated opportunity set. Direct mining plays in Congo remain exposed to policy whipsaw and quota risk, making project IRRs harder to forecast. Conversely, mining services, logistics, and energy firms serving *regional* copper hubs (Zambia, Botswana) benefit from capital reallocation without direct DRC policy risk.

Congo's government will likely respond with tighter export controls or higher royalty rates—a classic policy escalation cycle. This is negative for long-term FDI. The DRC has the ore; it lacks the stable governance to capture the full value chain.

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