Kiir orders Revenue Authority to boost non-oil revenue to

Brief

**HEADLINE:** South Sudan Non-Oil Revenue Push 2025: President Kiir's Plan to Stabilize Economy

**META_DESCRIPTION:** South Sudan's President orders revenue authority to boost non-oil income. What this means for FX stability, inflation, and investor risk in Africa's oil-dependent economy.

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## ARTICLE:

South Sudan's economy has long been held hostage by a single commodity. With crude oil accounting for over 90% of government revenue, the nation's fiscal health swings violently with global petroleum prices. Now, President Salva Kiir has issued a direct order to the Revenue Authority to accelerate non-oil revenue collection—a recognition that diversification is no longer optional but existential.

The directive signals urgency. South Sudan's GDP, measured in current prices, has contracted sharply since the 2013 civil war, and oil revenues have proven insufficient to fund basic services, military expenditure, and debt obligations. According to available economic data, the country's nominal GDP remains volatile and heavily dependent on production volumes and international oil quotes. Without non-oil revenue streams, the government cannot stabilize the South Sudanese pound or meet IMF fiscal benchmarks needed to unlock donor financing.

### What Revenue Sources Can South Sudan Actually Develop?

The Revenue Authority faces a practical challenge: South Sudan has minimal industrial base, weak tax administration, and limited formal-sector activity. Realistic opportunities lie in agriculture taxation (the country is a potential regional food exporter), livestock levies (pastoral communities are significant wealth holders), telecommunications licensing, and customs duties on imports through regional ports. VAT compliance alone could unlock tens of millions annually if enforcement improves. However, each of these requires institutional capacity that has been degraded by conflict.

### Why Non-Oil Diversification Matters for Investors

Oil-dependent economies are priced as high-risk assets. Institutional investors, banks, and multilateral lenders demand fiscal surpluses and currency stability before deploying capital. By demonstrating a credible non-oil revenue strategy, South Sudan can lower its country risk premium, improve its credit rating trajectory, and attract FDI into agriculture, logistics, and extractive industries beyond oil. The Central Bank's ability to defend the exchange rate improves once government revenues stabilize.

### How Will This Affect South Sudan's Macroeconomic Outlook?

Success is not guaranteed. South Sudan's tax base is narrow, informal-economy dominance is high, and corruption siphons collections. However, even a 15–20% increase in non-oil revenue could allow the government to reduce money printing, ease inflation pressure, and free up foreign exchange for essential imports and debt service. Conversely, failed implementation would accelerate currency depreciation and inflation, harming small businesses and salaried workers.

The timing is strategic. Global oil prices remain elevated, giving South Sudan a window to build non-oil revenue muscle before the next commodity downturn. Regional economic integration—particularly through the East African Community and IGAD—opens trade and investment channels that non-oil sectors can leverage.

**Bottom line:** Kiir's order is a necessary policy shift, but execution risk is extreme. Investors should monitor quarterly revenue reports from the National Revenue Authority and track exchange-rate stability as leading indicators of progress.

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