NESG Business Confidence Index rises to 102.1 in April 2026

Nigeria's private sector is signalling a decisive turnaround. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) reported that its Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) Current Business Performance Index climbed to 102.1 points in April 2026, marking sustained recovery momentum across the nation's commercial landscape. This momentum arrives as Lagos State—Africa's largest economy by GDP—has already collected N807 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2026, putting the state on track to exceed its annual budget targets.

## What's driving Nigeria's business confidence rebound?

The 102.1 reading reflects renewed optimism among enterprise decision-makers across manufacturing, services, and trade sectors. A score above 100 signals that more business leaders report improving conditions than deteriorating ones—a critical psychological threshold that often precedes increased investment and hiring. This April reading builds on months of gradual stabilization following 2024–2025 macroeconomic volatility, suggesting that policy adjustments and currency stabilization measures have begun to restore predictability in operating costs and planning horizons.

Lagos's robust tax performance—driven primarily by personal income tax collections—underscores this confidence. The state collected nearly one-fifth of its full-year budget within just 90 days, a pace that signals both stronger employment income and improved tax compliance. This suggests formal-sector businesses are expanding payrolls and formalizing operations, a tangible reflection of the sentiment captured in the NESG index.

## How does this reshape the investment landscape for 2026?

The confluence of rising business confidence and accelerating state revenues reshapes risk-reward dynamics for both domestic and foreign investors. Improved business sentiment typically precedes M&A activity, capacity expansion, and working capital deployment—all catalysts for secondary market rallies on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX). Consumer discretionary stocks, financial services, and logistics operators stand to benefit first as enterprises gain confidence to commit capital beyond immediate survival spending.

However, the sustainability question looms. While April's 102.1 reading is encouraging, investors must monitor whether this translates into actual capex commitments or remains sentiment-bound. The index measures *perception*, not deployment. Real capital allocation decisions lag confidence indices by 6–12 weeks, meaning hard evidence of this optimism will emerge in Q2–Q3 earnings and cash flow reports.

## Why Lagos revenue acceleration matters beyond one state

Lagos's N807 billion in Q1 revenue is not merely a state-level metric—it's a proxy for formal-sector health nationally. Lagos accounts for roughly 40% of Nigeria's tax base and 35% of GDP. Robust personal income tax growth here signals wage growth, business profitability sufficient to support employee compensation, and expanding employment in formal roles. When Lagos's tax engine runs hot, credit demand rises, banking sector profitability typically expands, and investor appetite for Nigerian equities increases.

The risk: inflation and interest rate policy could quickly cool this momentum. If the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintains hawkish rates to defend the naira, business confidence may stall despite current optimism. Investors should watch for any deterioration in the BCM index in May or June—early warning signs would suggest the April reading was a temporary data point rather than a trend.

---