Urea prices to surge 60% in 2026 – World Bank

The World Bank has sounded a stark warning for agricultural markets across sub-Saharan Africa: urea fertilizer prices are set to skyrocket 60% in 2026, climbing to approximately $700 per metric tonne from current levels. For Nigeria—Africa's largest economy and a nation grappling with food insecurity and currency volatility—this projection carries immediate implications for crop yields, input costs, and consumer food prices in a region already battling double-digit inflation.

Urea, the world's most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, underpins productivity for staple crops including maize, rice, and sorghum. Nigeria's agricultural sector, which employs over 30% of the workforce and contributes roughly 24% of GDP, depends heavily on imported fertilizer. A 60% price surge will cascade through supply chains: smallholder farmers will face sharply higher input costs, larger agricultural enterprises will compress margins, and food producers will absorb additional expenses that inevitably flow to retail prices.

## Why does urea pricing matter for Nigeria's economy?

Fertilizer costs directly drive production economics in a sector where margins are already thin. When global urea prices rise, the naira's weakness against the US dollar amplifies the domestic shock. A farmer buying urea at $700/tonne instead of $440/tonne (2025 baseline) faces a near-doubling of costs in naira terms, assuming current exchange rates. This pressure forces two outcomes: farmers reduce application rates (cutting yields) or pass costs to buyers, fueling food inflation that hits low-income households hardest.

Nigeria's Central Bank has already flagged food inflation as a persistent challenge, with cereals and tubers comprising 40% of the consumer price index. An additional fertilizer shock threatens the modest progress made on inflation control in late 2024–early 2025.

## What's driving the World Bank's forecast?

The projection reflects tightening global nitrogen supply, sustained energy costs for ammonia production (urea's core input), and geopolitical supply chain risks. Russia's role as a leading urea exporter remains constrained by sanctions, while production capacity elsewhere has not expanded sufficiently to meet demand from emerging agricultural regions. Climate variability in major fertilizer-producing nations adds supply uncertainty.

## How should Nigerian agribusinesses respond?

Forward-thinking operators should lock in fertilizer purchases before prices spike, explore alternative nitrogen sources (organic amendments, precision application to reduce waste), and invest in soil health practices that improve nutrient efficiency. Government should accelerate local fertilizer blending capacity and consider temporary tariff relief to buffer farmers from the full shock.

For investors, the supply-chain squeeze creates opportunity in agritech solutions—seed technology, crop insurance, and precision farming tools that maximize yield per unit of input. Companies supplying smallholders with efficiency-boosting technologies are positioned to gain as margins compress.

The 2026 urea surge is not yet priced into Nigeria's agricultural outlook. Early preparation separates resilient producers from those caught flat-footed.

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