Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Distributed Solar PV Leasing — Lagos & Abuja SME Clusters

Nigeria is experiencing a meaningful investment inflection point in mid-2026, underpinned by a combination of macroeconomic reforms and sector-specific policy catalysts. Combined FDI and FPI reached nearly $14 billion in the first nine months of 2025—surpassing all of 2024—driven by FX liberalisation, fuel subsidy removal, and monetary tightening under the Tinubu administration's Renewed Hope Agenda. FDI specifically surged 700% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025 to $720 million. On the trade policy front, Nigeria was appointed AfCFTA Co-Champion for Digital Trade alongside Kenya and South Africa, launched a National Single Window for customs facilitation, and deepened bilateral ties with the UK (Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership ministerial dialogue, March 2026), Brazil ($1.1 billion agricultural mechanisation deal), and Gulf states. A government ban on raw shea nut exports has forcefully redirected the value chain toward domestic processing, while NEXIM Bank has commissioned a flagship N2 billion shea butter processing plant in Niger State. In the energy sector, Nigeria's renewable market—valued at 3.59 GW in 2025—is projected to grow to 14.07 GW by 2031 (25.58% CAGR), accelerated by the 2023 Electricity Act that decentralises market oversight and lets states set their own feed-in tariffs. Key structural risks remain: naira volatility, bureaucratic bottlenecks, infrastructure gaps, and a power sector that forces businesses to self-generate electricity.

Nigeria's 2023 Electricity Act decentralised market oversight and empowered states to set independent feed-in tariffs; Lagos halved permitting time under its 2024 electricity law, compressing time-to-revenue for C&I solar projects. The removal of diesel subsidies in 2023 tripled energy costs for SMEs overnight, making lease-to-own solar arrangements immediately cash-flow positive versus diesel self-generation—companies report 20–30% cost savings.

Market drivers:

- Nigeria renewable energy market growing at 25.58% CAGR from 4.51 GW in 2026 to 14.07 GW by 2031

- Over 40% of Nigeria's population lacks grid electricity access, creating structural demand for distributed solutions

- Seven-year tax holidays and state-level feed-in tariffs improve project bankability for C&I solar developers

- Post-diesel-subsidy removal: tripled fuel costs make solar lease IRR highly attractive for SME off-takers

Risks:

- FX shortages and import duties can raise capex by more than 20% and delay equipment delivery

- Regulatory inconsistency between federal and state-level electricity frameworks may affect PPA enforcement