Road Infrastructure Supply-Chain Services — Subcontracting & Materials Supply into KeNHA's National Infrastructure Fund Pipeline

Kenya enters mid-2025 as East Africa's dominant investment destination, buoyed by several converging catalysts. President Ruto has launched a National Infrastructure Fund targeting KES 1.5 trillion (~USD 11 billion) to build 10,000 km of new tarmac roads, with active international tenders already published by KeNHA (financed by China EXIM Bank). On the trade front, Kenya signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with the UAE in January 2025 and is pursuing a new bilateral trade deal with the US to replace AGOA, while simultaneously concluding a preliminary Early Harvest Arrangement with China granting 98% of Kenyan exports duty-free access. The Kenyan Investment Authority is targeting a doubling of annual FDI to USD 3 billion, prioritising agriculture, manufacturing, and BPO. The startup ecosystem captured USD 638 million in 2024 funding — 88% of East Africa's total — led by a decisive shift from fintech toward cleantech (46% of funding), agritech, and AI-enabled services. Mobile money penetration reached 91% of the population (47.7 million active accounts) by June 2025, underpinning a mature digital infrastructure that supports adjacent sector investment. Regulatory risks persist — Kenya ranks 121st on Transparency International's 2024 CPI — but Moody's upgraded Kenya's outlook to Positive and the 2024 capital gains tax cut (from 15% to 5% for NIFC-certified investments) meaningfully lowers exit costs for foreign investors.

President Ruto's National Infrastructure Fund targets KES 1.5 trillion (~USD 11 billion) to construct 10,000 km of tarmac roads, and KeNHA has already issued an international open tender (Tender No. KeNHA/2889/2025) for the Pangani–Muthaiga–Kiambu–Ndumberi B32 road project financed by China EXIM Bank, with prequalification closing 22 August 2025. Funding is mobilised through PPPs and capital markets, creating a multi-year subcontracting opportunity for European firms supplying engineering services, quality materials, or project logistics.

Market drivers:

- USD 11 billion National Infrastructure Fund with PPP and capital-markets financing signals a decade-long construction boom open to private-sector participants at multiple tiers

- EU-Kenya Economic Partnership Agreement (signed December 2023) gives European suppliers preferential regulatory footing and investment protection compared to non-EPA competitors

- Kenya's Strategic Plan 2023–2027 targets FDI growth from USD 500M to USD 10B and explicitly develops Special Economic Zones to attract manufacturing and infrastructure-linked FDI

Risks:

- Chinese contractors hold preferred-bidder status on EXIM-financed lots, limiting direct contract access for European firms to subcontracting and specialist-service tiers

- Kenya ranks 121st on Transparency International's 2024 CPI; procurement delays and contract renegotiations remain a documented risk in public infrastructure projects