Coffee, Oilseed & Pulse Export Trading Under Directive 1082/2025 Market Opening

Ethiopia is riding a powerful wave of structural reform heading into 2026. The Ethiopian Investment Commission reported record FDI of USD 4.32 billion in the 2025/26 fiscal year — an 8% year-on-year increase — backed by 528 new investment licenses and more than 260 projects entering implementation. The government's landmark Directive 1082/2025 has lifted decades-old restrictions on foreign participation in export, import, wholesale, and retail trade, with immediate relevance for agribusiness, logistics, and coffee exports. A parallel forex liberalisation (FXD/04/2026) now allows forward-exchange hedging and full foreign-currency retention for service exporters, reducing one of the historically largest deterrents to foreign capital. Ethiopia's WTO accession negotiations reached a 'decisive juncture' in April 2026, promising future tariff certainty. Meanwhile, USD 1.7 billion in deals signed at the Invest in Ethiopia 2025 Forum — covering solar manufacturing, coal mining, and mineral SEZs — underscore sectoral momentum. Key structural risks remain: partial regional insecurity, a post-default sovereign bond restructuring still in progress, and the greenfield FDI pipeline contracted sharply in 2024, signalling that execution gaps persist despite the favourable headline numbers.

Directive 1082/2025, issued June 2025 and reinforced by the Chambers & Partners Investing in 2026 guide, now explicitly authorises foreign investors to export raw coffee, oilseeds, and livestock — sectors previously ring-fenced for domestic actors. This is the first time in decades that European entrepreneurs and diaspora investors can hold a direct export licence, capturing margin that previously sat entirely with local intermediaries.

Market drivers:

- Ethiopia is Africa's largest coffee producer and a top exporter of oilseeds and pulses, providing deep commodity volume

- Directive 1082/2025 opens export licensing to foreign investors for the first time in modern Ethiopian history

- WTO accession progress (April 2026 negotiations at 'decisive juncture') will further lower future tariff barriers with partner markets

- New forex directive FXD/04/2026 allows export-proceed retention, reducing currency conversion friction

Risks:

- Local entrepreneur displacement concerns may trigger political pushback or regulatory tightening on enforcement

- Ethiopia's sovereign bond restructuring and residual debt overhang create macroeconomic volatility affecting birr stability