6bn people online, 2.2bn still offline, says ITU

The global internet user base has crossed a historic milestone, reaching six billion people in 2025—a testament to two decades of connectivity expansion. Yet this headline figure masks a more nuanced reality: 2.2 billion people remain offline, representing nearly 28% of the world's population still excluded from the digital economy. For European entrepreneurs and investors targeting African markets, this gap represents both a cautionary tale about market saturation in developed regions and a genuine wealth-creation opportunity in emerging economies where connectivity infrastructure remains the binding constraint.

The International Telecommunication Union's latest report reveals that 240 million new internet users came online in 2025 alone—a growth rate that, while substantial in absolute terms, has begun to decelerate from previous years' trajectories. This slowdown is critical context: it suggests that markets with existing infrastructure (Europe, North America, East Asia) are approaching saturation, forcing technology companies and telecom investors to look elsewhere for expansion. Africa, home to over 50% of the world's offline population, has become the frontier market for connectivity investment.

For European investors, the implications are profound. First, telecommunications infrastructure plays—fiber optic rollouts, satellite internet projects (à la Starlink, OneWeb), and mobile tower expansion—are becoming less attractive in mature European markets but offer exceptional returns in Sub-Saharan Africa. Companies like Liquid Intelligent Technologies and MainOne are already capitalizing on this shift, yet the continent remains dramatically underserved. Second, the digital services ecosystem built atop this infrastructure—fintech, e-commerce, logistics platforms, agritech—cannot scale without addressing the underlying connectivity bottleneck. European founders with solutions in these verticals must bundle infrastructure development into their market-entry strategy.

The economic incentive is substantial. The 2.2 billion offline population represents $1+ trillion in untapped consumer spending power, assuming gradual digital adoption and typical African GDP growth trajectories. E-commerce platforms, digital payment systems, and cloud-based services that function in low-bandwidth environments will capture disproportionate value as this population comes online. European investors with experience building for resource-constrained environments (Scandinavian fintech companies, for instance) have a competitive advantage.

However, connectivity alone is insufficient. The quality of connection matters enormously. Rural Africa and less developed urban areas often have access to 2G or 3G networks, unsuitable for data-intensive applications. Investment in 4G/5G infrastructure, paired with affordable device pricing and localized content, will determine which players capture the 240 million annual new users. Additionally, regulatory fragmentation—telecoms licensing varies dramatically across African nations—creates friction that European companies must navigate carefully.

The geopolitical dimension cannot be ignored. China's Belt and Road Initiative has heavily financed African telecom infrastructure; European investors must compete with lower-cost Chinese players or differentiate on service quality, governance standards, and long-term partnership terms. This is not a zero-sum game—there is sufficient addressable demand for multiple competitors—but timing and capital deployment are critical.

The six billion online figure represents success for global connectivity advocates. The 2.2 billion still offline represent the next chapter of digital economy growth—and a rare greenfield opportunity for European capital seeking outsized returns in high-growth emerging markets.