Daily Petrol imports jump 96.6% to 5.9m litres in March —

Nigeria's energy sector is sending clear distress signals that should concern European investors operating in or considering entry into Africa's largest economy. Two critical developments in early 2026 paint a picture of an infrastructure system struggling under mounting inefficiencies: daily petrol imports nearly doubled in March, while the electricity distribution network hemorrhaged billions in uncollected revenue.

The surge in fuel imports—from 3.0 million litres daily in February to 5.9 million litres in March 2026—represents a 96.6% month-on-month spike according to Nigeria's Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority. This dramatic increase contradicts the government's long-stated goal of achieving fuel self-sufficiency through refinery rehabilitation. The Dangote Refinery, which came online in early 2024 with promises of domestic production capacity, has failed to meet output targets, forcing Nigeria to resume heavy reliance on imports. For European investors, this dependency signals continued vulnerability to global crude price volatility and foreign exchange pressures on the naira, which has depreciated significantly against the euro in recent years.

The electricity sector presents an equally troubling picture. Nigeria's distribution companies (DisCos) reported an 82.03% billing efficiency rate in Q4 2025—a metric that appears superficially reasonable but masks a catastrophic revenue leakage problem. Behind this figure lies a N174.12 billion (approximately €235 million) billing shortfall, representing nearly 18% of potential revenue simply vanishing through non-payment, metering failures, and theft. This is not a one-quarter anomaly; DisCo underperformance has persisted for years, reflecting widespread technical and commercial losses that neither regulatory reform nor tariff increases have stemmed.

These two crises are interconnected. Nigeria's power sector requires substantial investment in generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure. Without stable revenue from efficient billing, DisCos cannot invest in network upgrades or acquire the fuel needed for thermal generation. The fuel import surge, meanwhile, strains foreign reserves and limits government capacity to fund grid expansion. Together, they create a vicious cycle that undermines the business environment for any investor dependent on reliable electricity—from manufacturing to data centres to financial services.

For European investors, the implications are stark. Manufacturing operations face unpredictable power supply and escalating energy costs as generators compensate for grid unreliability. Service-based businesses encounter skilled-worker retention challenges when employees struggle with erratic electricity access. The fundamental infrastructure gaps suggest that despite Nigeria's 220-million-person market appeal, operational costs and risk premiums remain stubbornly high.

The government's inability to solve these problems after years of reform attempts raises questions about political will and implementation capacity. Recent tariff increases have focused on extracting more revenue from consumers rather than addressing technical losses or theft. Without credible reform—including aggressive metering, commercial loss reduction, and working capital discipline—the sector will continue to deteriorate.

European investors should treat these metrics as red flags prompting deeper due diligence on energy resilience for any proposed venture. Backup power infrastructure, already essential, becomes increasingly expensive as fuel imports remain elevated and distributed electricity unreliable.