Middle East war increases threats faced by farmers in Sudan

Sudan's agricultural sector is entering a critical phase as spillover effects from Middle East geopolitical tensions destabilise input markets and push farming communities toward subsistence survival. The combination of surging petroleum prices and near-total disruption to fertiliser supply chains has created a perfect storm that threatens not only Sudan's 2025 harvest but also food availability across the Horn of Africa and Sahel.

## How are fuel costs impacting Sudan's farming economy?

Petrol prices in Sudan have climbed sharply, directly raising production costs for mechanised farming operations. Diesel for irrigation pumps, tractors, and transportation now consumes a larger share of farmers' operational budgets. In a nation where agricultural GDP represents approximately 35% of economic output and employs over 60% of the workforce, even marginal cost increases ripple through entire rural communities. Smallholder farmers—who account for roughly 80% of Sudan's agricultural production—operate on razor-thin margins. When fuel costs double or triple, many abandon mechanised planting entirely, reverting to manual labour or leaving fields fallow. This supply-side shock directly translates to reduced output before the season even begins.

## Why has fertiliser become a critical bottleneck?

Sudan historically imported 70–80% of its fertiliser demand, sourced primarily from the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Asia. Current geopolitical instability has fractured these supply routes: shipping costs have doubled, insurance premiums spike on shipments through contested waters, and many suppliers have deprioritised African orders. The domestic fertiliser industry—minimal and state-owned—cannot compensate. Urea and diammonium phosphate (DAP) stocks have evaporated from regional agricultural supply shops. Without chemical inputs, yield-per-hectare collapses. A farmer applying no fertiliser might harvest 60–70% less grain than one with proper nutrient inputs. Across Sudan's 8.5 million hectares of cultivated land, this deficit could reach 2–3 million tonnes of grain annually—a catastrophic loss.

## What are the downstream economic and humanitarian risks?

Reduced planting and lower yields force food prices upward, deepening inflation in a nation already battered by currency depreciation and conflict-driven displacement. Sudanese households already allocate 50–60% of household income to food; price spikes push families below subsistence. Rural-to-urban migration accelerates, straining Khartoum and Port Sudan. Regional knock-on effects matter: Egypt, which imports 50% of its wheat, competes for limited African supplies; the Sahel faces heightened malnutrition. For investors, the signals are unambiguous: agricultural productivity contracts, food import bills rise, fiscal strain increases, and currency pressure persists. Government capacity to service debt or fund infrastructure shrinks.

Mid-to-long-term, Sudan needs fertiliser subsidy mechanisms, port infrastructure rehabilitation, and peace to restore farmer confidence. Until Middle East tensions cool and supply chains normalise, Sudan's agricultural sector will operate at structural deficit.

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