Virtus Minerals signs first major deal under US-DRC

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**HEADLINE:** DRC Critical Minerals 2025: US Partnership & Chinese Investment Reshape Mining Sector

**META_DESCRIPTION:** US-DRC critical minerals deal & China's 30% copper-cobalt stake reshape DRC mining. What it means for cobalt prices, battery makers, and African supply chains.

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**ARTICLE:**

## DRC's Critical Minerals Moment: US and China Both Make Strategic Moves

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is at the centre of a geopolitical tug-of-war over critical minerals that will shape global battery supply chains for the next decade. In early 2025, two seismic developments underscore the DRC's irreplaceable role in the energy transition: the signing of the first major deal under the US-DRC Critical Minerals Partnership, and China's Chengtun Group's acquisition of a 30% stake in a major copper-cobalt mining operation. These moves reveal starkly different strategies—one focused on supply chain diversification, the other on resource consolidation.

Virtus Minerals' landmark agreement under the US-DRC partnership represents Washington's strategic pivot to reduce dependence on Beijing for cobalt, nickel, and copper. The deal signals investor confidence that the DRC's regulatory environment and security conditions have stabilized enough to attract Western capital at scale. For over a decade, Chinese firms have dominated DRC mineral procurement; now, US-backed players are making their opening move. The timing is critical: global EV battery demand is projected to triple by 2030, and cobalt prices have already risen 40% since late 2024.

## Why Chinese Investment Still Dominates Despite US Competition

China's Chengtun Group's 30% acquisition in the DRC copper-cobalt mine demonstrates Beijing's unshaken confidence in long-term Congo exposure. While Western investors often view the DRC through a risk lens—political instability, artisanal mining, regulatory unpredictability—Chinese state-backed players treat it as strategic infrastructure. Chengtun's move locks in supply for Chinese battery manufacturers (BYD, CATL) and secures downstream processing advantage. Beijing already controls 60-70% of global cobalt refining capacity; owning raw material stakes compounds that monopoly.

## How Supply Chain Fragmentation Reshapes Battery Economics

The parallel push by both US and Chinese interests will fragment DRC mining into competing blocs. This is neither wholly positive nor negative. Competition should theoretically drive efficiency and reduce corruption; however, it also risks creating dueling mining operations, environmental degradation, and labour disputes. For battery makers and automakers, the near-term outcome is diversified sourcing options—reducing single-supplier risk—but at higher compliance costs and longer negotiation cycles.

## When Will Prices Stabilize?

Cobalt prices remain volatile because supply is concentrated in the DRC (70% of global output) and demand is unpredictable (dependent on EV adoption rates and battery chemistry shifts). The US-DRC partnership and Chinese acquisitions will not immediately stabilize prices; instead, they signal that producers expect sustained high prices through 2030. Investors should anticipate cobalt trading in the $18,000–$22,000/tonne range through mid-2025, with upside if EV demand outpaces expectations.

The DRC is no longer a commodity play—it is now explicitly a geopolitical asset. Western investors who move decisively over the next 18 months will secure first-mover advantage in the post-Chinese-dominance era. Those who wait risk being locked out of the most productive assets by state-backed competitors.

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