Why insecurity is creeping into Yorubaland – Gani Adams

Nigeria's Southwest region, historically regarded as the country's most economically developed and politically stable zone, faces an emerging security challenge that demands immediate attention from international investors. Recent statements from Iba Gani Adams, the Aare Onakakanfo (traditional leader) of Yorubaland, reveal a troubling trend: criminal insecurity has increasingly become a profit-driven enterprise rather than a byproduct of broader socioeconomic dysfunction.

This shift represents a fundamental change in the nature of Southwest security threats. Unlike insurgencies driven by ideological motivations or communal grievances, commodified insecurity operates as a revenue-generating mechanism. Criminal networks systematically exploit vulnerable communities through kidnapping, extortion, and resource theft—treating human security as a tradeable commodity. For European investors with substantial operations in Lagos, Ibadan, and other Southwest commercial hubs, this represents a material operational risk that extends beyond traditional security concerns.

The region's attempted response—the Amotekun security outfit, a regional rapid response force—has itself become entangled in political competition. Multiple state governments have expressed reservations about empowering this mechanism, citing concerns about centralized authority and political weaponization. This political fragmentation undermines coherent security responses and creates operational gaps that criminal networks exploit systematically. The alleged politicization of Amotekun recruitment further suggests that security capacity has become subordinate to factional political interests.

Several governors in the region have notably resisted robust state police initiatives, despite constitutional provisions enabling such mechanisms. Their reluctance appears rooted in concerns about losing security control to rival political factions. This institutional weakness creates a governance vacuum precisely when coordinated security capacity is most needed. For European enterprises, this means security challenges may persist longer than in regions with more unified governance structures.

The underlying drivers merit examination. Nigeria's Southwest benefits from superior infrastructure, educated human capital, and concentrated economic opportunity compared to other regions. Yet this prosperity itself creates vulnerability: the region contains wealth worth protecting through criminal means, and growing inequality generates pools of desperate recruits for criminal networks. The collapse of informal mediation systems—traditionally provided by respected monarchs—has further weakened traditional conflict-resolution mechanisms that once contained localized disputes before they escalated.

**Market Implications for European Investors:**

European firms operating in the Southwest should reassess operational assumptions about regional stability. Supply chain vulnerabilities are increasing, particularly for road-based logistics. Insurance costs for operations, personnel, and assets will likely rise as underwriters recalibrate Southwest risk profiles. The most significant threat emerges for mid-market manufacturers and distribution companies relying on efficient movement of goods; large multinationals with comprehensive security infrastructure typically absorb such costs, but smaller players face margin compression.

Recruitment and talent retention challenges may intensify as local professionals increasingly demand security allowances or relocate to perceived safer markets. This could impact cost structures for European firms relying on Southwest-based talent pools.

The security trajectory suggests medium-term deterioration before potential stabilization, assuming governments implement coherent responses. Patient capital investors should monitor governance reforms closely before expanding commitments.