40 Years of Biya: What’s the Economic Reality in Cameroon?

Cameroon marks four decades under President Paul Biya's leadership in 2024, a milestone shadowed by escalating post-election tensions that are reshaping the economic landscape. As Central Africa's second-largest economy, Cameroon's stability has historically attracted regional investment and served as a financial hub for the CEMAC zone. Yet the convergence of long-standing governance challenges and fresh civil unrest now threatens the fragile equilibrium that has sustained modest growth.

## What has 40 years of Biya rule delivered economically?

Cameroon's GDP reached approximately $43.7 billion USD in 2023, positioning it as a middle-income nation with diversified revenue streams: oil extraction, cocoa exports, forestry, and telecommunications. The regime oversaw partial economic liberalization in the 1990s, currency union with CEMAC (the Central African Economic and Monetary Community), and infrastructure expansion in transport and energy. However, structural weaknesses persist—dependency on commodity exports leaves the economy vulnerable to price shocks, and informal-sector activity (estimated at 50%+ of GDP) remains largely untaxed. Real per-capita income growth has been sluggish; poverty rates hover near 40%, with youth unemployment exceeding 15% in urban centers.

The oil sector, once Cameroon's profit engine, is in secular decline. Production peaked in 1985 and now accounts for roughly 4–5% of GDP, down from 30% in prior decades. This forced economic diversification, yet agriculture (cocoa, cotton, rubber) and services remain labor-intensive and low-wage. Bank lending to private enterprise remains constrained by high interest rates (8–12%) and limited collateral frameworks, choking SME growth.

## How are post-election protests destabilizing investor confidence?

The 2024 electoral cycle triggered widespread demonstrations over governance and transparency concerns. Roadblocks, strikes in transport and logistics, and episodic civil unrest have disrupted supply chains and deterred foreign direct investment. Businesses report increased security costs, delayed shipments, and reduced consumer spending as protesters occupy key commercial districts in Douala and Yaoundé.

Trade data from the first half of 2024 shows a 6–8% contraction in non-oil export volumes compared to the prior year, driven by logistics friction. Remittance inflows (critical to household spending) have slowed as diaspora confidence wavers. Foreign portfolio investment in Cameroon's limited equity market has retreated; the CEMAC stock exchange (BVMAC) saw declining turnover and flat valuations.

## What do investors need to watch?

Currency stability remains at risk. The CFA franc is pegged to the Euro at 655 FCFA = €1, a fixed anchor that provides regional discipline but limits monetary flexibility during shocks. If unrest deepens and capital flight accelerates, reserves could face downward pressure. Sovereign debt stood at ~65% of GDP in 2023; further fiscal strain from protest-related losses could trigger rating downgrades.

The telecom and financial-services sectors offer pockets of resilience. MTN Cameroon and Orange Cameroon generate stable cash flows, while local banks (Afriland First Bank, BICEC) serve a growing middle class. Agribusiness players with export networks remain positioned for long-term growth as cocoa demand strengthens globally.

Cameroon's economic outlook hinges on whether the government can credibly address governance grievances and stabilize the political environment. Without rapid reconciliation, persistent unrest will erode competitiveness and push capital to regional alternatives like Côte d'Ivoire or Senegal.

---