Egypt’s GDP to grow 4.6% in FY 2025/26: Reuters Poll

Egypt's economy is entering a critical inflection point. According to a Reuters poll of economists, the North African nation is projected to achieve 4.6% GDP growth in its 2025/26 fiscal year—a meaningful acceleration from the previous cycle and a signal that Cairo's multi-year structural reform programme is beginning to deliver tangible results. For European investors and entrepreneurs, this projection warrants serious attention, particularly given Egypt's strategic positioning as a gateway to African and Middle Eastern markets.

The anticipated growth rate reflects several converging factors. Egypt's Central Bank has maintained a hawkish monetary policy stance to combat inflation, which had surged following the pound's significant devaluation in 2023. This disciplined approach, though painful in the short term, has created an environment of stabilizing prices and restored foreign investor confidence. The Egyptian pound has stabilised, reducing currency volatility that previously deterred long-term foreign direct investment.

Beyond monetary tightening, Egypt's government has pursued aggressive structural reforms—privatisation initiatives, subsidy rationalisation, and labour market reforms—that are beginning to unlock productivity gains. The Suez Canal, which generates approximately $6-7 billion annually in vital hard currency reserves, continues to serve as a critical economic stabiliser, despite geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea that have periodically disrupted transit volumes. For European investors, this revenue stream provides crucial confidence that Egypt's external payment capacity remains intact.

The projected 4.6% growth trajectory is particularly significant when contextualised against Egypt's recent economic history. The country endured a severe currency crisis in 2022-2023, contraction pressures, and periods of negative real growth. This recovery represents not merely a cyclical bounce, but evidence that structural adjustment is taking root. Tourism, a sector employing millions of Egyptians and generating substantial export revenue, is recovering as security concerns fade and international travel rebounds post-pandemic.

However, European investors should acknowledge persistent structural challenges. Egypt's unemployment rate remains elevated, youth joblessness exceeds 25%, and the country still faces external debt servicing pressures estimated at $10+ billion annually. The growth projection assumes continued access to international capital markets and stable crude oil prices, both of which carry geopolitical risks. Additionally, domestic consumption remains constrained by middle-class purchasing power erosion during the inflationary period—a legacy that will take years to fully reverse.

For European enterprises, the 4.6% growth projection opens specific sectoral opportunities. Manufacturing and light industry benefit from Egypt's lower labour costs and improved macroeconomic stability. Agricultural technology and food processing companies can capitalise on the Nile Delta's potential as supply chains regionalise away from Asia. Financial services, logistics, and professional services sectors all stand to gain as the economy expands and foreign investor presence increases.

The critical question for European decision-makers is timing. At 4.6% growth, Egypt is no longer a distressed turnaround story—it's becoming a normalised emerging market with manageable but real fundamentals. This is the moment when patient capital deploys before consensus spreads and valuations compress. The next 18-24 months will prove decisive in determining whether Cairo's reforms prove durable or stall.