Cyclone Gezani tears through Madagascar, kills at least 31

Tropical Cyclone Gezani has carved a destructive path across Madagascar, claiming at least 31 lives and leaving widespread infrastructure damage in its wake. The cyclone, which made landfall in early 2025, represents one of the Indian Ocean's most severe weather events this season and poses immediate risks to Madagascar's already fragile economy and investor portfolios across the region.

Madagascar's vulnerability to cyclones stems from its geographic position in the cyclone belt and limited disaster preparedness infrastructure. The island nation experiences an average of 1–2 cyclones annually during the austral summer season (November–March), but Gezani's intensity and track have intensified humanitarian and economic concerns. Preliminary reports indicate significant damage to residential areas, agricultural zones, and coastal infrastructure—sectors that form the backbone of Madagascar's export economy.

## How Will Cyclone Gezani Affect Madagascar's Agriculture?

Agriculture employs roughly 70% of Madagascar's rural population and accounts for approximately 25% of GDP. The cyclone's timing coincides with the tail end of the main harvest season for rice, the country's staple crop, and threatens vanilla, clove, and litchi plantations in northern and eastern regions. Crop losses could reduce food security and force Madagascar to increase rice imports, straining foreign currency reserves already pressured by commodity price volatility. The World Food Programme has flagged heightened malnutrition risks in affected districts, which could trigger emergency humanitarian spending that diverts government resources from debt servicing and development projects.

## What Are the Port and Trade Implications?

Madagascar's primary export corridors—Toliara and Antananarivo ports—handle shipments of mining products, agricultural commodities, and textiles. Cyclone damage to port infrastructure, logistics networks, and warehousing capacity could delay shipments of graphite, nickel, and chromite to international markets, disrupting supply chains for electronics and renewable energy manufacturers dependent on these minerals. Investors in Madagascar's mining sector should monitor port clearance times and shipping insurance premiums, which typically spike post-disaster.

## Why Should Emerging Market Investors Pay Attention?

Madagascar's sovereign credit profile is already constrained by limited fiscal buffers and external debt obligations. The International Monetary Fund has Madagascar on a precarious fiscal trajectory, and natural disaster recovery costs could necessitate emergency financing or IMF program adjustments. Regional investors with exposure to East African supply chains—particularly in textiles, vanilla, and mineral processing—face supply disruptions lasting 4–12 weeks depending on infrastructure restoration pace.

Currency risk is also elevated: Madagascar's ariary has depreciated 15% year-to-date against the dollar, and cyclone-driven import needs could exacerbate external imbalances. The Central Bank may intervene in forex markets to stabilize the currency, potentially tightening liquidity for businesses.

Insurance and reinsurance companies active in the Indian Ocean region will face elevated claims, particularly for agricultural and property damage, which could pressure 2025 earnings and capital ratios for firms underwriting Madagascar-linked risks.

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